Loss Prevented, Loss Ignored
The Caltech Center for Disaster Resilience is parterning with the Statewide California Earthquake Center (SCEC), the US Geological Survey, and the California Geological Survey to spearhead ShakeOut Scenario 2.0. This is an update to the 2008 ShakeOut Scenario that examined the consequences of a large, plausible earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The goal is to translate cutting-edge science into actionable guidance for communities by analyzing the probable losses from such an earthquake in the mid-21st century and evaluate the costs and benefits of possible mitigation policies to reduce the losses.
The SOS2.0 project will evaluate:
- Casualties, mental health, and fatalities
- Building and infrastructure damages, particularly impacts on tall buildings
- Triggered hazards of landslides, fire following earthquake, flooding, and chemical spills
- Business interruption and cascading national economic impacts
- Social disruption, including impact on hospitals, schools, and population
Why do it all again?
The original ShakeOut Scenario and the conditions it assumed no longer fully describe Southern California. SOS2.0 will include cutting edge science and consider evolutions in climate and society.
Better Science
Our ability to model earthquake ground motions have advanced dramatically in the last 20 years. Moreover, several recent events have provided us with data to better understand the impact of big disasters on urban society. For example, the 2023 Türkiye earthquake is a very close analog to a San Andreas fault earthquake and gave us new data on the intensity of shaking very near a major fault as well as demonstrating the impact of large off-fault aftershocks.
Changing Climate
The 2025 Los Angeles wildfires and the 2026 Lineage Fire have provided new insights about the impacts of urban conflagration. Together, these four events alone provide data for a much richer understanding of the impact of future earthquakes.
New Social Conditions
The 2020 pandemic demonstrated that remote work is viable and changes how we view the impact of the disruption of office environments.
Our ability to model earthquake ground motions have advanced dramatically in the last 20 years. Comprehensive physics-based dynamic models will be created for a mainshock on the San Andreas fault as well as a plausible large aftershock in the Los Angeles basin. We will go beyond just assessing the structures and facilities damaged in the earthquake to including secondary hazards such as landslides, fires, chemical spills and dam failures and then evaluating the impact of these damages on the economic, physical and mental health, and social well-being of our communities.
The SOS2.0 project will evaluate:
- Casualties, mental health, and fatalities
- Building and infrastructure damages, particularly impacts on tall buildings
- Triggered hazards of landslides, fire following earthquake, flooding, and chemical spills
- Business interruption and cascading national economic impacts
- Social disruption, including impact on hospitals, schools, and population